Politics prediction markets
Election outcomes, cabinet appointments, legislation odds and geopolitical showdowns, priced in real time by prediction-market traders. When polls and pundits disagree, the market is where conviction gets tested.
Live Politics markets
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?Closes July 29, 2026
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Closes July 29, 2026
- Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Closes October 4, 2026
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Closes October 4, 2026
- Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Closes October 4, 2026
- Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Closes September 30, 2026
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Closes November 3, 2026
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Closes November 3, 2026
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Closes November 3, 2026
- Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Closes September 30, 2026
- Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Closes November 3, 2026
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?Closes September 20, 2026
- 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseCloses November 3, 2026
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseCloses November 3, 2026
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Closes November 3, 2026
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Closes November 3, 2026
- Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Closes September 30, 2026
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseCloses November 3, 2026
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?Closes December 9, 2026
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Closes November 3, 2026
- Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?Closes April 30, 2027
- Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Closes April 30, 2027
- Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Closes October 4, 2026
- Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Closes April 30, 2027
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Closes April 30, 2027
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by July 15, 2026?Closes December 31, 2026
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?Closes December 9, 2026
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Closes December 31, 2026
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?Closes December 9, 2026
- Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Closes December 31, 2026
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Closes September 16, 2026
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Closes September 16, 2026
- Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?Closes December 31, 2026
- Kash Patel out by December 31?Closes December 31, 2026
- Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?Closes December 9, 2026
- Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Closes August 1, 2026
- Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Closes July 31, 2026
- Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Closes October 4, 2026
- Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Closes July 31, 2026
- Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Closes September 13, 2026
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Closes September 13, 2026