Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?” a 59% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 41% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 59% |
| Volume | $1,370,894 |
| Closes | December 9, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Elevated inflation, driven by energy price surges and supply disruptions tied to Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor shaping expectations for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026. Recent FOMC projections placed the median endpoint at 3.8%, with nine participants anticipating at least one hike this year amid a resilient labor market and steady GDP growth near 2.2%. Trader pricing favoring a 4.0% or 3.75% terminal rate reflects bets on additional tightening beyond the current 3.50%-3.75% range before December, as markets price in potential September action and question the pace of disinflation. Upcoming data releases and the September FOMC meeting could shift these probabilities if inflation moderates or growth slows.