Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $12,584,718 |
| Closes | October 4, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Lula maintains a lead in first-round polling averages near 38-40% as the Workers’ Party incumbent seeking re-election, while Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trails in the low-to-mid 30s, producing the current trader consensus on overall victory probabilities. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys from early September show the first-round gap narrowing to five points and runoff scenarios between the two falling into statistical ties, with high rejection rates above 45% for both. Augusto Cury’s surge to 8-10% has drawn support from smaller right-leaning candidates but leaves the contest centered on the Lula-Bolsonaro matchup. Ongoing free electoral broadcasts, candidate interviews, and the approach of the October 4 first round have kept attention on turnout dynamics and second-round coalition behavior in a polarized electorate.