Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 61% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 61% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 40% |
| Volume | $7,340,925 |
| Closes | October 4, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Lula's position as incumbent seeking a fourth term underpins his leading 50.5% implied probability in the 2026 race, reinforced by recent scandals that have eroded support for main challenger Flávio Bolsonaro. June polls from Quaest, MDA, and others show Lula at 41-43% in first-round intentions ahead of Flávio at 28-34%, with the gap widening after audio leaks tied the senator to a disgraced banker and prompted voter scrutiny. Fragmentation among other right-leaning figures including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos limits unified opposition, while concerns over crime and economic performance shape voter priorities ahead of the October 4 first round. Trader consensus reflects these dynamics, with lower odds for alternatives underscoring the binary contest emerging between the Workers' Party and Liberal Party standard-bearers.