Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 56% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 56% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 44% |
| Volume | $9,739,559 |
| Closes | October 4, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Lula holds the leading position in trader consensus for Brazil's October 2026 presidential election, reflecting his consistent first-round polling edge of roughly 37-46% against Flávio Bolsonaro's 29-45% in recent surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and others. The incumbent Workers' Party candidate benefits from name recognition and established voter base heading into the campaign's final stretch, with free electoral broadcasts and debates underway since late August. Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president, has narrowed the runoff gap to a technical tie in head-to-head simulations around 44-46%, though high rejection rates for both frontrunners persist. Minor candidates like Augusto Cury show gains but remain distant, while Jair Bolsonaro's legal barriers keep right-wing support consolidated behind his son. Upcoming October voting timelines continue to shape positioning.