Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 59% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 41% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 59% |
| Volume | $9,475,590 |
| Closes | October 4, 2026 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Lula holds a narrow lead over Flávio Bolsonaro in recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote and a technical tie in runoff simulations, reflecting a tightening contest one month before election day. Flávio has consolidated support as the primary right-wing candidate following Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility due to a criminal conviction and suspended political rights, while investigations into Lula’s son in the Banco Master case and slower economic growth have eroded the incumbent’s earlier advantage. Official campaign advertising on radio and television has just begun, coinciding with Augusto Cury’s rise to third place on media visibility, though he and other contenders like Renan Santos remain well behind. Trader consensus prices align with these trends, treating the race as closely contested within the margin of error and sensitive to late shifts in turnout or economic sentiment.