Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?” a 81% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 20% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 81% |
| Volume | $296,781 |
| Closes | September 13, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Sweden's September 13, 2026, parliamentary election drives the market, with the centre-left bloc led by Social Democrats chair Magdalena Andersson maintaining a narrow lead in recent Novus polling for TV4 at 50.3% versus 47.7% for the incumbent Tidö coalition. This positioning reflects sustained advantages for the opposition in vote intention surveys throughout 2026, despite the gap closing sharply from double-digit margins earlier in the campaign. Traders price Andersson at 78.5% as the likely post-election appointee due to bloc arithmetic favoring her return to the premiership, while Ulf Kristersson's 19.5% reflects the current government's minority status and reliance on Sweden Democrats support. Other listed candidates remain marginal given party standings and historical coalition patterns. The final days of campaigning on issues including security and the economy could still influence seat distribution ahead of Riksdag negotiations.