Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?” a 78% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 78% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 23% |
| Volume | $446,069 |
| Closes | September 13, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Sweden’s September 13 parliamentary election features a narrowing but persistent centre-left lead, with Social Democrat leader Magdalena Andersson positioned as the clear frontrunner for prime minister. Recent polls show the opposition bloc ahead by roughly 3–5 points, though Social Democrat support has slipped to the mid-to-high 20s amid voter concerns over the economy, crime, energy, and immigration. The right-wing Tidö parties have gained ground but face headwinds from the Liberals polling below the 4% threshold. Preferred-prime-minister surveys consistently place Andersson well ahead of incumbent Ulf Kristersson, reflecting trader consensus on her party’s seat projections and post-election bargaining leverage despite coalition complexities involving the Centre, Greens, or Left parties.