Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.5% at the end of 2026?” a 92% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 8% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 92% |
| Volume | $203,370 |
| Closes | December 9, 2026 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent FOMC decisions have kept the federal funds rate target steady at 3.5-3.75 percent through the July 2026 meeting, with three dissents favoring a hike amid elevated PCE inflation near 3.7 percent and energy price pressures tied to Middle East supply disruptions. The June dot plot showed roughly half of participants projecting at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end, while new Chair Kevin Warsh has prioritized returning inflation to the 2 percent goal over labor market easing. With the next FOMC meeting in mid-September and limited meetings remaining before December 31, trader pricing clusters around 3.75-4.25 percent, reflecting consensus on modest policy tightening or a hold amid resilient growth and stable unemployment near 4.2 percent.