Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?” a 51% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 50% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 51% |
| Volume | $18,447,346 |
| Closes | September 16, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent strong U.S. employment data, including a 162,000 August jobs gain that exceeded expectations and held unemployment at 4.1%, has reinforced trader views that the labor market remains resilient enough to support policy tightening. Persistent inflation above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with hawkish signals from Chair Kevin Warsh emphasizing price stability, has lifted the implied probability of a 25 basis point September hike near parity with a hold. Incoming August CPI figures, due before the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, represent the key near-term catalyst that could shift the closely matched consensus, while broader economic resilience and policy communications continue to anchor the tight pricing.