Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?” a 62% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 39% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 62% |
| Volume | $668,515 |
| Closes | September 16, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Persistent inflation pressures, with May CPI reaching 4.2% year-over-year amid energy shocks tied to Middle East developments, combined with a resilient labor market showing 172,000 May job gains and 4.3% unemployment, have tilted trader consensus toward no change or modest tightening at the September 2026 FOMC meeting. Recent upward revisions to FOMC projections under the new chair, alongside solid payroll trends and core inflation readings near 2.9%, support the 56% probability for unchanged policy and 38.5% odds of a 25 basis point hike as the leading outcomes. Limited pricing for cuts reflects the elevated bar for easing until clearer disinflation emerges, with upcoming July data releases likely to influence any shifts in these implied probabilities.