Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 90% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 90% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 11% |
| Volume | $595,828 |
| Closes | October 4, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Flávio Bolsonaro leads the market for second place in Brazil’s October 4 first-round presidential vote at 89.5 percent because consistent recent polling places the Liberal Party (PL) senator firmly behind incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) while ahead of all other contenders.** Lula registers 37–38 percent support in September surveys from Datafolha, Quaest, and PoderData, with Flávio at 30–34 percent; the next candidates—writer Augusto Cury (Avante, 8–10 percent) and Renan Santos (Missão, ~3 percent)—trail significantly. The race remains polarized between the PT and PL after Jair Bolsonaro’s ineligibility, with free electoral broadcasts and early debates reinforcing this two-candidate dynamic. Trader pricing reflects the low probability that any other name overtakes Flávio before voting day.