Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?” a 76% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 24% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 76% |
| Volume | $2,579,830 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in the race to secure the most seats in the September 18–20 State Duma election due to its entrenched position as the ruling party, strong performance in single-member districts under the mixed electoral system, and consistent top rankings in official polling. Recent developments reinforcing this include the June scheduling decree, party congresses finalizing candidate lists with prominent figures and veterans, and the August disqualification of Yabloko from proportional representation. New People has gained modest ground in some surveys but trails significantly, while KPRF, LDPR, and others remain further behind amid restricted competition and a campaign centered on stability and the national program. Trader consensus reflects these structural and timing factors heading into the final weeks.