Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $3,558,909 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
United Russia maintains a commanding lead in trader pricing for the most seats in the September 2026 State Duma election due to its status as the ruling party, extensive organizational resources, and consistent polling advantage of roughly 40-50 percent. Recent developments include the June 2026 party congress finalizing federal and single-member district candidate lists featuring high-profile figures such as Sergei Lavrov and Sergei Sobyanin, alongside the formal scheduling of voting for September 18-20. Limited competition persists after the Supreme Court removed Yabloko from the ballot, while New People has shown polling gains in some surveys but trails significantly. The mixed electoral system of party lists and 225 single-member districts further advantages established parties with strong regional structures, aligning with the current market distribution across outcomes.