Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $2,872,215 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
United Russia maintains a commanding position in trader assessments for the September 2026 State Duma election due to its entrenched administrative resources, control of state media, and consistent polling leads around 50 percent or higher in state-aligned surveys. Preparations including party primaries, leadership restructuring, and three-day voting across 450 seats reinforce expectations of another constitutional majority for the ruling party. New People has gained visibility through recent conventions and regional efforts, occasionally polling ahead of traditional systemic opposition groups in some surveys, which supports its elevated market share as the likeliest second-place contender. Other parties such as LDPR and KPRF trail amid limited shifts in public support, while the overall environment of restricted genuine opposition and inclusion of voters from occupied territories further entrenches the projected hierarchy.