Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $3,578,702 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
United Russia maintains a commanding position heading into the September 18-20 State Duma election, supported by its control of single-mandate districts, extensive regional organization, and alignment with the presidential administration. Recent party congresses emphasized candidate renewal, including military veterans, while leaked targets adjusted downward to around 45 percent on the party list amid softer approval ratings tied to economic pressures. New People has shown the strongest polling gains among registered systemic parties, reaching second place in several June surveys and narrowing the gap on some measures. Yabloko’s Supreme Court removal from the ballot in August further consolidated the field among approved contenders. Trader pricing reflects these institutional advantages for United Russia alongside New People’s momentum as the primary alternative within the managed system.