Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?” a 81% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 19% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 81% |
| Volume | $430,762 |
| Closes | December 9, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Elevated inflation readings and a resilient U.S. economy have anchored trader expectations around a 4.0% federal funds rate by the end of 2026, the leading Polymarket outcome at 41.6%. Persistent price pressures, including supply disruptions and tariff effects, prompted the Federal Reserve to hold the target range at 3.50-3.75% through mid-2026 meetings while revising up its median end-2026 projection to 3.8%. Multiple FOMC participants now anticipate at least one hike, with dissenters at the July meeting favoring immediate tightening. Strong GDP growth and steady unemployment near 4.3% have reduced the case for easing, leading the wisdom of crowds reflected in current pricing to favor modest tightening over deeper cuts by year-end. The September FOMC meeting remains a key near-term catalyst.