Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?” a 69% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 69% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 32% |
| Volume | $9,090,961 |
| Closes | September 30, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
United Russia holds a commanding position ahead of the September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections due to its control of state institutions, media access, administrative resources, and the mixed electoral system allocating half the seats via single-member districts. Official polls from FOM and WCIOM place the party well ahead of competitors, though at reduced levels compared with prior cycles, while New People has shown gains in some surveys. Recent steps—including candidate list registrations, the Supreme Court removal of Yabloko from the federal ballot, and ballot positioning—have further narrowed the field to Kremlin-aligned options. Traders assign United Russia the highest probability of securing the most seats, consistent with its incumbency advantages and the limited scope for independent challengers under current rules.