Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?” a 65% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 35% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 65% |
| Volume | $2,104,614 |
| Closes | April 30, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Marine Le Pen maintains a leading position in the 2027 French presidential race amid a fragmented field, with recent August 2026 polls showing her at 33–35% in the first round while Édouard Philippe trails in the low-to-mid teens and Jean-Luc Mélenchon hovers around 14–19%. The National Rally candidate benefits from a consolidated base and limited competition on the right, even as center-right and centrist contenders like Philippe, Gabriel Attal, and Bruno Retailleau split moderate voters. On the left, divisions among Mélenchon, Raphaël Glucksmann, and others hinder a unified challenge, though Mélenchon has shown gains in some scenarios that could secure a runoff spot. A late-August debate among seven candidates and an upcoming left primary underscore the vote-splitting dynamics. Further separation could emerge from center consolidation, primary results, or shifts in economic or EU-related sentiment before the May vote.