Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?” a 56% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 44% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 56% |
| Volume | $19,392,347 |
| Closes | September 16, 2026 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent labor market softening and cooler inflation readings have narrowed the gap between a 25-basis-point rate hike and no change at the September FOMC meeting. Weak July employment figures, including a decline in payrolls and an unemployment rate at 4.1 percent, alongside modest easing in core measures, have given policymakers more room to pause despite inflation remaining well above the 2 percent target for years. Lingering supply-side pressures from energy and Middle East developments continue to support hawkish views, as reflected in July dissents and Chair Warsh’s emphasis on price stability. Traders’ near-even pricing between the two leading outcomes captures this data-driven uncertainty ahead of the mid-September decision and any final pre-meeting releases.