Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?” a 99% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 1% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 99% |
| Volume | $1,082,964 |
| Closes | October 1, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Justice Samuel Alito, 76, has repeatedly signaled no near-term plans to step down, most recently telling the Wall Street Journal in August 2026 that he is “here for another term” and dismissing retirement speculation as a reminder of mortality. An erroneous June 2026 NPR report announcing his departure was quickly retracted by the outlet and denied by the Court, though it briefly fueled trader interest in a possible announcement timed to the Republican Senate majority and President Trump’s term. Alito has already hired clerks for the 2026-2027 term that begins in October, and sources indicate he intends to serve into 2027. Prediction markets currently assign low single-digit to low-teen probabilities to an announcement by late 2026, with higher odds attached to later windows such as June 2027, reflecting the justice’s public stance and the absence of health or institutional signals of departure.