Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?” a 65% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 35% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 65% |
| Volume | $1,504,036 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Incumbent Karen Bass leads trader pricing at 64.5% for the November 3 runoff against City Councilmember Nithya Raman at 35.1%, reflecting the June 2 primary outcome where Bass received 34.3% and Raman 29.0% to advance over other candidates. Bass benefits from name recognition and established donor networks in a heavily Democratic city, though her approval has been pressured by rising homelessness counts, criticism of the 2025 wildfire response, and public safety concerns. Raman, backed by the local Democratic Socialists of America chapter and positioning further left on housing and equity issues, draws support from progressive voters but trails in most available aggregates. Recent campaign adjustments by Bass and the absence of a Republican alternative in the runoff have reinforced the market's assessment of Bass's structural edge heading into the final stretch.