Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?” a 63% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 63% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 38% |
| Volume | $708,662 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Incumbent Karen Bass leads the November runoff matchup against City Councilmember Nithya Raman following the June 2 nonpartisan primary, where Bass secured a plurality near 34% and Raman edged Spencer Pratt for second place at roughly 29% after late mail-ballot counting. Bass benefits from broad establishment support across Los Angeles neighborhoods and endorsements from state Democratic leaders, reflecting trader assessments of incumbency advantages in a heavily Democratic city. Raman, a progressive former Bass ally, draws strength from voter frustration over homelessness, housing costs, and public safety, consolidating left-leaning coalitions in the runoff. Minor candidates including Pratt remain sidelined below 1% in market pricing, underscoring the binary contest dynamics ahead of the November 3 general election.