Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $313,327 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The resilient U.S. labor market and sticky inflation have anchored the federal funds target range at 3.50%-3.75% through mid-2026, with the effective rate holding at 3.63%. August nonfarm payrolls of 162,000 and a steady 4.1% unemployment rate prompted major banks to delay projected cuts until June 2027 or later, while futures now price a greater chance of a September hike. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year and core at 2.5% reinforce the higher-for-longer stance ahead of the September 11 inflation release and September 15-16 FOMC meeting. Trader consensus in rate markets reflects this data-driven caution, pricing limited downside moves before year-end.