Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.0% or lower before 2027?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $291,129 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Persistent inflation pressures from Middle East energy shocks, including May CPI at 4.2% year-over-year, drove the June 2026 FOMC—under new Chair Kevin Warsh—to hold the federal funds target at 3.50%-3.75% for the fourth straight meeting while lifting the median end-2026 dot-plot projection to 3.8%. Nine participants now see at least one hike this year amid revised PCE forecasts of 3.6% for 2026. A resilient labor market with 4.3% unemployment and steady job gains reinforces the higher-for-longer stance, though core PCE near 2.9% offers some offset. Traders monitor the July CPI release, upcoming employment data, and subsequent FOMC meetings for signals on whether policy firming or delayed easing materializes before 2027.