Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?” a 97% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 3% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 97% |
| Volume | $200,094 |
| Closes | August 1, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent developments center on a preliminary U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding reached in mid-June 2026 after more than 100 days of conflict that began with U.S.-Israeli strikes in February. The 14-point framework extends the existing ceasefire for 60 days, commits Iran to forgo nuclear weapons, outlines sanctions relief and oil export waivers tied to further progress, and schedules reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, with formal signing expected shortly in Geneva. Nuclear enrichment limits, highly enriched uranium stockpiles, and a $300 billion reconstruction fund remain deferred for the next negotiation round. President Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian have been central signatories to the initial document, while mediators from Pakistan and Qatar facilitated talks. The 60-day window ending around mid-August creates a clear timeline for any comprehensive follow-on agreement before the market resolution date.