Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $1,998,769 |
| Closes | April 30, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Marine Le Pen leads trader pricing for the 2027 French presidential election as the National Rally candidate, reflecting her consistent first-round polling advantage near 34 percent following the July 2026 appeal ruling that preserved her eligibility and her subsequent candidacy announcement. Édouard Philippe trails closely as the strongest center-right option, benefiting from consolidation among Macron-era voters and right-leaning blocs in a fragmented field where Gabriel Attal and others split support. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s rising share on the left adds uncertainty to runoff scenarios under France’s two-round system. The narrow gap in market prices captures ongoing volatility from potential candidate withdrawals, coalition negotiations, and upcoming debates that could alter vote transfers or turnout dynamics ahead of the April first round.