Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?” a 83% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 18% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 83% |
| Volume | $211,664 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**María Corina Machado remains outside Venezuela as of mid-June 2026, coordinating with U.S. officials on security arrangements during the post-Maduro transition under interim President Delcy Rodríguez.** U.S. forces captured Nicolás Maduro earlier in the year, after which Machado—who received the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize—left the country in December 2025 and has since operated from Washington and other locations while seeking guarantees for a safe return. She has repeatedly stated plans to re-enter before the end of 2026 and run again for president, including announcements at a late-May opposition summit in Panama, yet recent comments stress unresolved logistics and safety factors that have postponed earlier “coming weeks” timelines. U.S. policy emphasizes a multi-phase process with the interim government ahead of any elections, contributing to trader views that near-term entry faces significant barriers despite her public commitments.