Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?” a 73% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 28% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 73% |
| Volume | $3,691,990 |
| Closes | November 3, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
California voters face a November 2026 ballot measure imposing a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion, with proceeds directed primarily to state healthcare programs. The initiative qualified after a labor union collected sufficient signatures, yet Governor Gavin Newsom and several Democratic-aligned groups have opposed it, citing risks to the state budget and business climate. Opponents, including Silicon Valley donors, have funded rival measures designed to limit or invalidate new wealth taxes and have committed tens of millions toward defeating the proposal. A spring poll showed modest initial support that has faced sustained institutional resistance. Traders assign the measure a 72.5% chance of failure, consistent with patterns where well-funded ballot opposition and elite consensus often determine outcomes on novel tax initiatives.