Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 3.75% at the end of 2026?” a 76% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 24% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 76% |
| Volume | $532,941 |
| Closes | December 9, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Persistent inflation pressures above the Fed’s 2% target, combined with a hawkish shift in the June 2026 FOMC Summary of Economic Projections, anchor trader expectations for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026 near 4%.** The median dot-plot projection rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine of 18 participants placing dots at or above 3.875%, reflecting upgraded PCE inflation forecasts to 3.6% for 2026 amid supply shocks and energy-price effects. A resilient labor market (unemployment near 4.1–4.3%) and the new Fed chair’s communications have reduced odds of cuts while supporting modest hikes, aligning with futures pricing around 3.85–3.9% by December. The 4.0% and 3.75% outcomes together capture roughly two-thirds of market probability because they match the central tendency of 3.6–4.1% in the latest projections, while lower rates would require faster disinflation than recent data indicate.