Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $1,237,253 |
| Closes | October 4, 2026 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent polling from institutes including Quaest, PoderData, and others shows incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading first-round intentions at 37-40% ahead of the October 4 vote, with Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) a clear second at 29-34% and all other named candidates in single digits or lower. This positioning stems from Flávio's consolidation of right-wing and Bolsonarista support as the Liberal Party nominee following his father's ineligibility, while figures such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain fragmented and low. Augusto Cury (Avante) has risen into third at around 10% in the latest surveys, yet trails far behind. Traders appear to view these patterns as stable given the short campaign window and limited evidence of rapid shifts among other contenders.