Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?” a 73% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 28% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 73% |
| Volume | $1,449,284 |
| Closes | April 30, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Marine Le Pen holds the lead in trader pricing for France’s April 2027 presidential election after a July appeals court ruling reduced her ineligibility period, enabling her candidacy and lifting her first-round polling to the mid-30s. Édouard Philippe trails as the strongest centrist challenger, drawing support from voters seeking a Macron-era continuity figure, yet multiple overlapping candidacies from Gabriel Attal, Bruno Retailleau, Raphaël Glucksmann and others continue to split the center and center-right vote. Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s recent gains on the left further compress space for moderate alternatives. Recent candidate announcements and an August multi-candidate debate have underscored these divisions without producing decisive shifts. With the race hinging on first-round qualification and second-round transfers, sustained fragmentation or a unifying centrist signal could narrow Le Pen’s edge, while any renewed legal uncertainty or stronger left consolidation would widen it.