Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?” a 74% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 27% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 74% |
| Volume | $1,146,531 |
| Closes | April 30, 2027 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent polls show Jordan Bardella of the National Rally leading first-round voting intentions near 30 percent ahead of the April 2027 contest, with Édouard Philippe and Jean-Luc Mélenchon clustered behind, reflecting RN strength on immigration and security alongside a fragmented center and divided left. Marine Le Pen’s pending appeal on her embezzlement conviction and potential office ban have shifted trader attention toward Bardella as the likely RN standard-bearer. Philippe’s positioning as a Macron-era successor faces headwinds from investigations and weak consolidation among centrist voters, while Mélenchon’s recent gains highlight left-wing mobilization. These crosscurrents, plus uncertainty over runoff pairings and coalition dynamics, keep probabilities closely matched among the top three and limit separation until clearer candidate fields and voter alignments emerge.