Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?” a 89% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 11% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 89% |
| Volume | $2,420,320 |
| Closes | September 20, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent polling shows a tight three-way contest for the September 20 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election, with CDU, Die Linke, and AfD clustered between 18-22 percent and Grüne close behind. The CDU holds a narrow lead in the latest surveys after replacing its prior candidate, while Die Linke has gained ground on social and housing issues. AfD support has risen steadily but remains limited by coalition exclusion. SPD weakness and the five-percent threshold further fragment options. Trader pricing reflects this volatility, with small shifts in final-week turnout or debate performance among the top contenders likely to determine the plurality winner.