Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $2,406,280 |
| Closes | December 9, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent hawkish updates to the FOMC's Summary of Economic Projections have anchored trader sentiment around the 3.75-4.0% range for the federal funds rate at year-end 2026. The June 17 dot plot lifted the median endpoint to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, with nine participants now seeing at least one hike this year amid May CPI inflation accelerating to 4.2% year-over-year—driven largely by energy costs tied to geopolitical tensions. The current 3.50-3.75% target range, held steady under new Chair Kevin Warsh, reflects a solid labor market and sticky core prices, prompting markets to price out earlier cut expectations. Key swing factors include the pace of disinflation in coming CPI and PCE releases, upcoming FOMC communications through September, and any shifts in Treasury yields or risk appetite that could alter the implied policy path.