Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $2,409,514 |
| Closes | December 9, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent U.S. employment data showing 162,000 job gains in August and steady 4.1% unemployment have reinforced labor market resilience, elevating trader expectations for Federal Reserve tightening by December. This aligns with the June Summary of Economic Projections median of 3.8% for end-2026, upward revisions to inflation forecasts amid supply shocks and tariffs, and the July FOMC statement noting elevated prices plus three dissents favoring an immediate hike. Markets now price roughly 60% odds of a September increase, supporting the leading 4.0% outcome while 3.75% and 4.25% reflect uncertainty over the pace of any adjustments before year-end.