Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 6% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $853,096 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito, appointed in 2005 and now 76, has directly addressed retirement speculation by stating in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview that he is “here for another term,” describing external pressure as “vultures” circling amid life tenure. An erroneous late-June NPR report—quickly retracted after mishearing Chief Justice Roberts’ staff announcements—briefly amplified talk of an imminent departure that could allow President Trump another appointment while Republicans hold the Senate. Earlier 2026 reporting noted conservative interest in a vacancy before potential 2026 midterm shifts in Senate control. The next Court term opens in October 2026 and runs through mid-2027, with no subsequent announcements or procedural signals indicating plans to step down. Trader pricing on announcement timelines reflects these statements and the absence of confirming developments.