Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $805,237 |
| Closes | October 10, 2026 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize market remains wide open, with all listed candidates trading below 8% implied probability amid a fragmented field of activists, organizations, and institutions. Yulia Navalnaya’s modest lead stems from ongoing attention to Russian opposition legacies and human rights advocacy against authoritarianism, while UNRWA and the International Court of Justice draw support from sustained humanitarian and multilateral themes. Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Pope Leo XIV reflect conflict-resolution and diplomatic narratives, yet no single storyline has consolidated trader consensus ahead of the October announcement. Historical precedent favors either prominent individuals or groups tied to current global flashpoints, leaving room for late momentum shifts based on evolving events through early fall.