Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?” a 94% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 94% |
| Volume | $19,937,011 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Putin, aged 73 with no publicly designated successor, maintains firm control through a personalist system reliant on security services and loyal elites, many of whom are also in their seventies or facing health issues. Trader probabilities remain low—around 1% by September 2026 and 7% by year-end—reflecting the absence of imminent removal signals despite ongoing Ukraine conflict strains, modest approval dips to the mid-60s, and war-related economic pressures. Recent developments include the June 2026 death of former potential heir Sergei Ivanov and extensions for aging officials, while Putin has deflected questions about serving until 2036. The September 18–20 Duma elections test United Russia’s mobilization but occur under tight controls unlikely to trigger leadership change. Historical patterns favor incumbents retaining power until health or other unforeseen events intervene, with the constitution routing any vacancy through the prime minister pending elections.