Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?” a 98% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 2% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 98% |
| Volume | $16,451,915 |
| Closes | July 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent US-Iran framework agreement on reopening the Strait has lifted near-term hopes for normalized shipping, yet persistent security risks, de-mining requirements, and elevated insurance premiums continue to constrain vessel transits to a fraction of the pre-February 2026 average of roughly 100 daily passages. With traffic data showing minimal movement since the June 10 closure announcement and hundreds of vessels still stranded, traders price in a narrow window for full recovery by July 31. Key swing factors include any verified de-escalation milestones or renewed incidents that could accelerate or further delay insurer and shipper confidence, directly influencing implied probabilities around this critical oil chokepoint.