Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?” a 90% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 11% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 90% |
| Volume | $21,874,058 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The regime's survival through the February 2026 U.S.-Israeli conflict, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and subsequent transition to Mojtaba Khamenei, combined with sustained IRGC control and suppression of January protests, drives the 90.5% "No" probability. Elite infighting and economic strains persist into June, yet the government has maintained core institutions amid ceasefire talks and a draft U.S. agreement expected soon. Traders price in resilience absent coordinated mass defections or decisive external shocks. Late-breaking diplomatic collapse, renewed widespread unrest, or leadership health events within the resolution window could still shift odds before 2027.