Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 8% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $25,558,451 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The Iranian regime's survival through early 2026 protests, the February-March assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, leadership succession to Mojtaba Khamenei, and a U.S.-Israeli military campaign has reinforced trader expectations that it will endure past 2026. Security forces conducted a lethal nationwide crackdown that suppressed demonstrations across all provinces without triggering elite defections or widespread military collapse. Economic pressures, including inflation, currency depreciation, and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, persist amid intermittent strikes and failed ceasefire talks, yet the Islamic Republic has maintained command structures and fiscal operations. As of early September 2026, no new mass unrest or institutional fracture has emerged to alter this trajectory, aligning with the 92.5% implied probability that the regime avoids outright fall before 2027.