Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
As of October 21, 2026, the market gives “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?” a 85% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 16% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 85% |
| Volume | $74,790,383 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated October 21, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.