Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?” a 95% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 5% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 95% |
| Volume | $2,048,642 |
| Closes | October 10, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The Nobel Peace Prize market reflects a highly fragmented field with no dominant frontrunner, as traders spread modest positions across more than a dozen candidates tied to ongoing global conflicts and humanitarian efforts. Yulia Navalnaya holds the narrow lead on the strength of her visible advocacy following her husband's legacy, while UNRWA, Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and other institutional or diplomatic figures trail closely behind amid competing narratives around peace processes, aid work, and resistance movements. This dispersion underscores the committee's history of surprising choices and the absence of decisive precursor signals this early in the cycle. With the October 2026 announcement still distant, fresh diplomatic breakthroughs or high-profile campaigns could quickly shift momentum before final voting.