Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?
As of July 28, 2026, the market gives “Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026?” a 93% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 7% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 93% |
| Volume | $1,075,835 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 28, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Mojtaba Khamenei holds an overwhelming market lead because Iran’s Assembly of Experts formally selected him as Supreme Leader on March 9, 2026, days after his father Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February during the 2026 Iran war. The unanimous vote by the clerical body, backed by Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps influence, established Mojtaba as the constitutional head of state with command authority over security forces. No subsequent leadership change, coup, or Assembly reversal has occurred through mid-June 2026. Other listed figures remain marginal because they lack comparable institutional support or current office: exiled opposition candidates such as Reza Pahlavi face regime barriers, while clerics like Alireza Arafi or officials like Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf hold secondary roles without succession momentum. Trader pricing therefore reflects continuity under the newly installed leader through year-end absent major disruption.