Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?
As of July 29, 2026, the market gives “Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?” a 97% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 3% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 97% |
| Volume | $3,676 |
| Closes | July 26, 2026 |
Updated July 29, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Global seismicity exhibits substantial week-to-week variability driven by the stochastic nature of tectonic stress release along major fault systems, with no reliable short-term precursors for M5.5+ events. USGS data indicate roughly 10–15 such earthquakes worldwide in a typical week, derived from the ~1,900 annual M5+ total and the Gutenberg-Richter frequency-magnitude relation, though counts can range from fewer than 8 to more than 12 due to aftershock sequences or quiet periods. Recent activity through mid-July 2026 shows no unusual clustering or elevated rates that would shift expectations for July 27–August 2. Market-implied odds near 50% across bins therefore reflect this inherent uncertainty, with resolution depending on real-time USGS catalog updates and any unforeseen aftershock activity from prior events.