Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
As of September 2, 2026, the market gives “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” a 96% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 4% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 96% |
| Volume | $37,907,252 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 2, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Multiple batches of declassified UAP records released by the Pentagon since May 2026 under the Trump administration’s PURSUE initiative, including five tranches of videos, images, and agency files through August, have produced no official statement confirming extraterrestrial life or technology. Pentagon and AARO assessments continue to attribute resolved cases to prosaic sources such as satellites, flares, or drones, consistent with prior annual reports. Congressional efforts, including House adoption of a UAP Records Review Board amendment to the FY2027 NDAA and pending Senate action after September 14, focus on transparency processes rather than immediate disclosure of non-human evidence. Trader consensus reflected in current low single-digit probabilities for confirmation by year-end aligns with the absence of any qualifying definitive statement from the president, cabinet, Joint Chiefs, or federal agencies.