Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?” a 81% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 19% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 81% |
| Volume | $405,045 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Recent ocean temperature records and a strengthening El Niño have driven trader consensus toward 2026 finishing as the warmest year on record at 78.5% implied probability. Global mean temperatures through mid-2026 place the year third behind 2024 (1.55 °C above 1850–1900 baseline) and 2025 (~1.43 °C), yet daily sea-surface temperatures have matched or exceeded prior peaks since June amid marine heatwaves covering over 80% of ocean surfaces. NOAA and other agencies note an accelerating underlying trend of roughly 0.35 °C per decade after adjusting for natural variability, consistent with record ocean heat content. Updated forecasts now assign rising odds of 2026 overtaking 2024, with final rankings hinging on late-year model runs and full annual datasets from NASA GISS, NOAA, and Copernicus.