Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?” a 89% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 11% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 89% |
| Volume | $850,980 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
The DOGE-1 12U CubeSat, developed by Geometric Energy Corporation for lunar orbit insertion and imaging via electric propulsion after Falcon 9 trans-lunar injection, faces a September 13, 2026 target aligned with optimal lunar geometry and rideshare manifest constraints. Primary drivers include ongoing SpaceX payload integration with missions such as Intuitive Machines Nova-C variants, historical postponements from the original 2022 plan, and Elon Musk’s February 2026 comments pointing to possible 2027 slippage. Technical readiness reviews in early 2026 and final launch window decisions in the coming months will determine whether the 40 kg spacecraft meets deployment criteria before year-end, with model consensus on trajectory stability favoring the late-2026 slot absent further manifest conflicts.