Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?” a 77% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 77% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 24% |
| Volume | $591,038 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Strong El Niño conditions, now strengthening rapidly with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding 2°C in key Pacific regions and over 90% odds of a historic peak by late 2026, represent the dominant driver elevating market-implied odds of 2026 finishing as the warmest year on record to 76.5%. This event builds on the long-term greenhouse gas-driven warming trend and follows 2024’s record anomaly, with 2026 temperatures already tracking above prior years in multiple months amid ocean heat content at unprecedented levels. Official forecasts from NOAA and model ensembles indicate the El Niño’s warming influence will intensify through year-end, though exact ranking depends on final dataset reconciliation and any late-year variability. Traders appear to weigh the current trajectory and climatological context heavily, with lower probabilities assigned to finishes of 3rd or below given the event’s projected magnitude.