Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?” a 67% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 34% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 67% |
| Volume | $507,871 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Strong anthropogenic warming from greenhouse gases combined with residual ocean heat from the 2023–2024 El Niño has kept 2026 global temperatures near record levels through mid-year, according to analyses from NOAA, NASA, and Carbon Brief. Early 2026 monthly anomalies placed the year behind 2024 but ahead of most prior records, with February ranking fifth-warmest globally; models project a best-estimate outcome of roughly 1.47 °C above pre-industrial, favoring second place behind 2024 (67 % implied probability) while leaving a modest chance of surpassing it as the warmest. A developing El Niño by late 2026 could boost remaining months, though La Niña influences earlier in the period and natural variability introduce uncertainty in final ranking.