Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?” a 54% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 47% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 54% |
| Volume | $274,455 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred in 2026 through early September, keeping the market nearly even between zero (47.5%) and one (46.5%).** Global Volcanism Program records through March show dozens of active volcanoes but maximum VEI values of 3 or lower for new or continuing events, consistent with background levels at sites like Semeru, Manam, and Kīlauea. Historical frequency indicates VEI-4 events (requiring ≥0.1 km³ tephra or >10 km plumes on the Explosivity Index) average several per decade, with gaps possible; the current absence supports trader balance between zero and a single late-year occurrence. Key variables include ongoing monitoring by the Smithsonian GVP and national agencies for plume height, volume estimates, or intensification at restless systems, plus any model updates on magmatic unrest. Resolution depends on final 2026 cumulative figures released in 2027.