Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will there be exactly 0 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?” a 58% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 58% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 42% |
| Volume | $499,576 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Trader consensus heavily favors zero VEI ≥4 eruptions in 2026 at 57% implied probability, reflecting the statistical rarity of such events—typically a handful per decade globally per Global Volcanism Program records—and the absence of confirmed large explosive activity through early September. Ongoing monitoring shows only lower-VEI or effusive behavior at sites like Kīlauea’s episodic fountaining, Semeru’s persistent ash plumes under 1 km, and Sinabung’s recent 1–3.5 km columns, none meeting the VEI 4 thresholds of roughly 0.1 km³ tephra or plumes exceeding 10 km. A speculated May submarine event off Papua New Guinea fell short of confirmed criteria. Continued seismic, gas, and satellite surveillance through year-end will determine whether any unrest escalates to the required scale.