Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will there be between 17 and 19 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?” a 68% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 32% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 68% |
| Volume | $212,904 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Trader consensus on the 2026 count of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes centers on the 14–16 range at 47% implied probability, followed by 17–19 at 34.5%, reflecting USGS data showing 11 such events through early September against a long-term annual average of roughly 15. Primary drivers include a mid-year cluster of large events, notably the June 7.8 Mindanao, paired June 24 Venezuela shocks, July 7.3 Chiapas, and August 7.4 Colombia and 7.8 Flores quakes, which elevated the year-to-date total without exceeding typical variability. Remaining months would require only three to five additional events to reach the leading bin, consistent with historical patterns and the absence of sustained aftershock sequences or new subduction-zone activity that could push counts higher. Market-implied odds incorporate the inherent uncertainty in seismic forecasting, where plate-boundary stress release remains episodic rather than predictable.