Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will there be between 14 and 16 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?” a 56% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 45% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 56% |
| Volume | $188,627 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
As of early September 2026, roughly 11–12 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes have occurred globally according to USGS and monitoring data, placing the year on pace for a typical total near the long-term average of 15–16 events. Trader consensus favoring 14–16 or 17–19 outcomes reflects uncertainty over remaining aftershocks from recent large events, such as the August 7.8 Flores Sea and 7.4 Colombia quakes, alongside ongoing subduction zone activity in the western Pacific and Indonesia. Seismic release is episodic rather than uniform, with model variability in aftershock productivity and regional strain accumulation creating the narrow spread between these bins; new USGS catalog updates or additional M7+ events before year-end will likely shift implied probabilities.