Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
As of October 16, 2026, the market gives “Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?” a 79% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 21% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 79% |
| Volume | $420,836 |
| Closes | January 8, 2027 |
Updated October 16, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.