Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?” a 88% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 12% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 88% |
| Volume | $417,157 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
As of early September 2026, USGS catalogs show 11 magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide, placing the year near or slightly below the long-term average of 15–16 such events annually. Recent activity includes the M7.8 Mindanao event in June, the deadly M7.5 Venezuela sequence, and August’s M7.7 Flores and M7.4 Colombia quakes, which have contributed to the current tally without triggering an unusual aftershock surge. Trader consensus favoring 14–16 total outcomes reflects expectations that the remaining four months will add roughly four to six additional events, consistent with typical global rates monitored by the USGS. Natural variability in subduction-zone and intraplate seismicity, along with potential model revisions to borderline magnitudes, keeps the distribution between 14–19 relatively tight while underscoring forecast uncertainty.