Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
As of September 5, 2026, the market gives “Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?” a 89% chance of NO.
| YES odds | 11% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 89% |
| Volume | $417,157 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 5, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
**Trader sentiment for the total count of magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes in 2026 centers on the current tally of roughly 11–12 events through early September, set against a long-term global average of 15–16 per year.** USGS data show activity concentrated along Pacific subduction zones, with recent large shocks including the June 7.8 Philippines and August 7.7 Indonesia events. The narrow spread between the 14–16 (45%) and 17–19 (35.5%) bins reflects uncertainty over whether the remaining four months will follow baseline rates or experience a modest uptick from aftershock sequences or new clusters. Seismic occurrence follows a roughly Poisson process with natural variability, and no anomalous global signals currently point to a major deviation. Continuous USGS monitoring will refine the outlook as additional events are recorded.