Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?” a 93% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 93% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 7% |
| Volume | $240,367 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
As of late August 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,903 measles cases in the U.S., already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289 and marking the highest annual count since 1991. Trader sentiment reflects sustained transmission fueled by 37 new outbreaks this year, with 94% of cases outbreak-associated and 94% occurring among unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals, primarily children and teens. Multiple states including Pennsylvania, Utah, and South Carolina continue reporting cases amid declining MMR vaccination coverage that has eroded herd immunity below the 95% threshold needed to prevent endemic spread. Official weekly CDC surveillance updates, school-year transmission patterns, and any revised case counts or outbreak declarations remain key near-term catalysts that could shift market-implied odds on the final 2026 total.