Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
As of September 3, 2026, the market gives “Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?” a 98% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 98% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 2% |
| Volume | $14,838 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 3, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
Sustained community transmission in multiple states continues to drive elevated 2026 U.S. measles totals, with CDC data through August 27 confirming 2,903 cases—already exceeding the full-year 2025 figure of 2,289 and marking the highest annual count since 1991. Roughly 94% of infections involve unvaccinated individuals or those with unknown status, and 94% link to outbreaks, reflecting local chains rather than importations amid documented declines in MMR coverage. Weekly incidence remains active, with recent reports of 65–157 new cases, primarily among school-age children. Official surveillance updates from the CDC each week, along with state health department releases, provide the key data points that could shift trader assessments of final-year totals before resolution.