Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
As of July 14, 2026, the market gives “Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?” a 84% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 84% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 17% |
| Volume | $80,769 |
| Closes | December 31, 2026 |
Updated July 14, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
As of mid-June 2026, the CDC has confirmed 2,073 measles cases nationwide, already approaching the full-year 2025 total of 2,288 and reflecting sustained community transmission primarily among unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals (93% of cases). Major ongoing outbreaks, including those originating in 2025 in South Carolina and Utah, account for most infections, with 30 new outbreaks reported this year and the majority locally acquired rather than imported. Lower MMR vaccination coverage in specific communities, combined with high measles transmissibility (R0 of 12–18), drives the elevated case counts relative to pre-2025 baselines. Weekly CDC surveillance updates on confirmed cases and outbreaks represent key upcoming data releases that could shift totals before year-end resolution.