Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?
As of September 4, 2026, the market gives “Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?” a 100% chance of YES.
| YES odds | 100% |
|---|---|
| NO odds | 0% |
| Volume | $94,190 |
| Closes | January 1, 2027 |
Updated September 4, 2026 · Live data from Polymarket
About this market
As of early September 2026, the CDC has confirmed 3,134 measles cases in the United States, already exceeding the full-year 2025 total of 2,289 and marking the highest annual count since 1991. Sustained transmission stems primarily from declining MMR vaccination coverage, with 93–94% of cases occurring in unvaccinated or unknown-status individuals clustered in communities with exemption rates above herd-immunity thresholds. Outbreak-associated cases comprise 95% of the total across 38 new outbreaks, concentrated in states including Pennsylvania, Utah, and South Carolina, where undercounting is likely due to unreported mild infections. Weekly CDC surveillance updates and the November Pan American Health Organization review of U.S. elimination status—last achieved in 2000—represent key upcoming data points that could influence final 2026 tallies amid ongoing local transmission.